There's a new poll out of Indiana this evening and it shows a tightening race in my state's presidential primary battle. Here are the results, along with the numbers from Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll:

Research 2000
400 Likely Voters -- MoE 5%
3/31-4/2

49% -- Hillary Clinton
46% -- Barack Obama
5% -- Undecided

SurveyUSA
530 Likely Voters -- MoE 4.3%
3/29-3/31

52% -- Hillary Clinton
43% -- Barack Obama
5% -- Other/Undecided

For the Clinton camp, these numbers can't be encouraging. As I mentioned in my last post, she enjoys the support of most of the Democratic establishment within the state, but the endorsement yesterday of Obama by widely-respected former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton will probably give a palpable boost. Here's how the fight breaks down right now:

In the central portion of the state (outside of Indianapolis) and in southern Indiana, the demographics suggest that Clinton should have no problem tallying up some healthy margins. Similarly, the Obama campaign appears to be making a strong effort to run up the score in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, opening a second campaign headquarters in a city that arguably doesn't justify it by size alone. They want to win there, and win big.

The batleground -- at least at this point -- looks to be developing in the northern portion of the state. Conventional wisdom says that Obama should perform strongly in the northwestern region, which is in many ways an extension of Chicago, but the more east one travels, the more competitive the race will likely be.

A quick look at where Hillary Clinton and her chief surrogate have been reveals a lot about where they think there is the potential for votes -- a strong showing on the southern and northeastern portions of the state, and the losses in Indianapolis and the handful of large college towns could (theoretically, at least) be overcome.

Now, Obama still hasn't returned to the state since his one, brief visit to the suburbs of Indianapolis a few weeks ago. But he is running a statewide ad buy right now, which is something the Clinton campaign has yet to accomplish. The ad hits on jobs, which both candidates will need to address if they want to win the votes of countless Hoosiers who have lost their jobs over the last five years. Tonight's poll confirmed that, with 36% of Hoosiers putting economic recovery on the top of their agenda. Furthermore, he has already made promises to the press to at least visit South Bend and Fort Wayne, and he has canceled an event in the college town of Muncie to visit the Fort tomorrow.

The silence from Clinton supporters in this state about the 9-point margin in Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll -- and the thinly-veiled disappointment in response to tonight's results -- says a lot about their confidence heading into this home stretch. Still, I wouldn't underestimate the power of Clinton's supporters within the state, especially that of Sen. Evan Bayh, who in many ways bet the farm with his early endorsement. The question remains as to when Clinton will take to the airwaves, and as I wrote this I saw two Obama ads play in a matter of twenty minutes. Tonight's poll should make it clear that if they want to win Indiana, they are going to have to do more than they currently are.

We'll be following this race over at BlueIndiana.net, so feel free to drop by.

My name is Thomas and I write over at the Blue Indiana blog, which up until recently didn't have a whole lot to do with the Democratic presidential primary. We in the Hoosier state pulled for our favorite team, but at the end of the day, our May primary seemed light-years away. Having not mattered in this particular electoral process for decades, we had all resigned ourselves to our collective fate.

But fate has a funny way of not doing exactly what you had planned, and as we cruise toward April it is becoming increasingly clear that Indiana won't just matter -- we'll be a battleground. This morning's Washington Post sets the stage:

Wedged between Illinois, which is Sen. Barack Obama's home state, and Ohio, which Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton dominated on March 4, Indiana may be the one state remaining on the primary calendar where both candidates begin with a roughly equal chance of coming out ahead.

That fact alone makes it stand out from states such as Pennsylvania, where the playing field for the April 22 contest offers big advantages to Clinton (N.Y.), or the Oregon race a month later, which clearly tilts toward Obama.

First things first: Who is winning? That's the question of the hour. I'm asking it, politicians are asking it, and I have heard rumors that more than a few national polling outfits are asking it around the state right now. The bottom line is that no one knows, but the early edge seems to be toward Hillary for two main reasons.

The biggest one at face value is that the demographics of the state tend to cater to the areas in which Clinton has enjoyed success in the past. Indiana has been ravaged by job losses in heavy industry, and just today another 900 jobs were lost due to a GE plant closing in the town where I live. Hillary has already made one stop, and Bill has made more than a few, and with ten cities already under their belt, it is clear that the Clinton campaign wants to focus on these moderately rural, predominantly white regions of the state that share much in common with the more economically troubled areas to our east. In fact, the Ohio ground operation that gave Clinton her much-needed victory appears to have been shipped wholesale across the border and into the state.

The second major factor at work here, which really is the more intriguing from a state-focused political perspective, is the wildcard represented by our own Sen. Evan Bayh. Bayh endorsed Clinton very early on in the process, after he had dropped out of the race and before anyone was making even the slightest movement to legitimately challenge Hillary's front-runner status. He's far and away the most popular Democrat in the state, with approval ratings consistently above the mid-sixties, and his centrist attitude and cautious political sense has sustained his place as the standard-bearer in Indiana for over a decade.

When he announced his support -- and according to many astute observers, an unofficial bid for the running mate slot -- a good majority of the state's Democratic leadership did as well, including the Speaker of the Indiana House, the Indiana Democratic Party state chair, and the last Democratic Governor. This has translated into a 5-2 lead in the superdelegate count, with another five up for grabs among the uncommitted congressional delegation. Rumors say that more than a few lean toward Obama, but the popular vote totals will likely determine a lot.

Of course, the Obama campaign is confident that they can take great advantage of areas of the state where they should thrive. We have at least three big college towns, and you will rarely meet someone from the northwest third of the state who doesn't refer to their home as "just outside of Chicago." The Obama campaign announced the opening of ten field offices yesterday, as well as the hiring of a full field staff, and their activity in the Indianapolis area has signaled that they believe the state's largest city will be an asset come election day.

Sen. Obama has only made one trip himself to the state, a general absence that, within the context of the recent Clinton tour, has many wondering if he has already ceded the point, but I have been assured by numerous people related to the campaign that they plan to contest this state with full force, and the only (arguably dubious) poll to be done of the race thus far had Obama up by 15 points.

Where does that leave us? It's anyone's guess, but I'm inclined to agree with the Post that we will see Indiana be one of the last truly up-for-grabs states in the primary schedule. And with 84 delegates at stake, there will likely be a lot of grabbing going on. I'll have more in my next post about why Sen. Evan Bayh has more invested in this race than many realize.

From the diaries, some sad news out of Indiana today - Todd

Via Blue Indiana:

The Indianapolis Star is reporting that Rep. Julia Carson, who spent her long and distinguished career in politics serving those who were most underrepresented, has passed away at the age of 69.

Carson's death comes just weeks after she announced she was dying of lung cancer and would not seek re-election to a seventh term in 2008.

Two days later, she said she would not seek re-election, saying her time away from Congress would be "a time to weep and a time to laugh," and she added, "a time to heal."

But Carson never healed and never returned to Congress.

"Who knows the future, who knows god's will," she said in the statement announcing her decision not to run again. "I want very much to return to Washington and continue representing the good people of Indianapolis with my vote. I can only request your prayers that I might gain the strength to continue my service."

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